Monday, July 4, 2011

Quantitative Easing Ends, U.S. Dollar Higher

Greenback in currency trading


The U.S. dollar is higher across the board today in forex trading on the currency market. It's the first day without quantitative easing, and the greenback is doing better than many thought it would.

However, a lot of it probably has to do with low volume. Americans are gearing up for a long weekend, and Europeans are waiting to see what happens at a special finance minister meeting on July 3.

With all of this waiting, it is little surprise that the U.S. dollar is higher -- even with stock markets in Europe and the U.S. rallying to start the month of July.

Canadian Dollar Loses Ground in Forex Trading

Loonie lower in currency trading


The U.S. dollar is gaining against many major currencies after falling short earlier. The Canadian dollar is losing some ground in forex trading after seeing success against the greenback.

Loonie has been doing well in currency trading, advancing quite rapidly. However, some forex traders believe that the Canadian dollar was overbought. As a result, the loonie is going through a correction.

Also helping the U.S. dollar in forex trading right now is the fact that there is some risk aversion on the latest news about the possibility of a Greek default. As a result, not even slightly higher oil prices have been able to help the Canadian dollar in forex trading.

Could the U.K. Pound See Solid Gains in the Last Half of 2011?

Sterling expected to appreciate later this year

The U.K. pound is expected to see solid gains as we move into the second half of 2011. Indeed, sterling is the only major currency gaining against the U.S. dollar today.

One of the main reasons that the U.K. pound is expected to do well in forex trading on the currency market is due to the widening interest rate gap between the dollar and the pound.

Even the choppy equity markets and concerns about Greek debt default have been unable to send the U.K. pound lower in currency trading today, even though the loonie and euro are both down. Rangebound trading is expected, though, since the Independence Day holiday in the U.S. is resulting in low volume for the financial markets.

Happy Independence Day

How will you celebrate our nation’s independence? We have a rather traditional day laid out for ourselves. We’ll start the day out with our city parade and a brunch with our extended Minnesota family. Later, I’ll do some grilling, and late in the evening, we will join friends to watch fireworks in St. Paul. In between, the First Mate and I will continue watching the miniseries John Adams, starring Paul Giamatti and Laura Linney as John and Abigail Adams. The story stretches from the Boston Massacre to Adams’ death on July 4, 1826, and presents a brilliant warts-and-all look at the man known as the Colossus of Independence in his day. The series includes this dramatization of the approval and publication of the Declaration of Independence, a stirring recitation:
My wife and I have spent the last few summers watching documentaries and dramatic recountings of the American Revolution period. Last year, we discovered The Founding of America, a collection of History Channel presentations that are worth so much more than the modest sale price of the set. I reviewed it last year, and the price has dropped considerably since then, which makes it a steal. But if you can’t get your hands on either for today, the History International channel will play the miniseries The Revolution all day, which is one of the programs included in the set, and a fine way to get into the spirit.

However you celebrate our independence, have a happy and safe day with family and friends, and take a moment to remember the men who risked all for our freedom and liberty.

Three ways to bolster liberty on Independence Day

Earlier today, I prescribed a blend of civic and personal for celebrating Independence Day. Glenn Reynolds, better known as Instapundit, offered a more active plan for both celebrating and promoting liberty today and in the future in his Washington Examiner column yesterday. Besides e-mailing New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg a photo of yourself eating a hotdog (brats here in the Upper Midwest, natch), Glenn writes that Americans can declare their independence from those who want to keep us dependent on an out-of-touch federal nanny-state government in three ways:

* Attack the funding. Many of the most anti-liberty activities of state and local governments are driven by federal funding — either direct funding, or grants. …
* Stop supporting the enemies of freedom and start supporting your friends. Cancel your subscriptions to cable TV channels, magazines or newspapers that support big government over individual liberty.
* Join Together. It may seem contradictory to assert your independence by banding together. But our Founding Fathers didn’t set America free by acting alone.

The first two points are rather clear, although Glenn offers good advice in how to carry out both. He provides some interesting food for thought with the third. The nature of American liberty and independence is not isolation, but in voluntary associations, as Glenn references Alexander de Tocqueville’s observation:

In fact, voluntary association, as de Toqueville observed, is part of the particular genius of the American republic. So get involved.

You might join a political party — many small-government activists are trying to take over the Republican (and some even the Democratic) Party at the grassroots level and work from the bottom up, from the precinct to the state level.

It’s surprisingly easy to get involved in politics locally, and you can acquire responsibility and influence quite rapidly if you’re good with people and willing to put in the work.

Alternatively, you might join a Tea Party group. Those are still springing up all over, and are already having a dramatic influence on both national and local politics.

Every group is different, as the Tea Party is a movement, not a party, and has no main office. Find one that suits you, or start one if you can’t.

If there’s one issue you care about a lot, get involved there. Gun rights activism crosses party lines, but has had a major influence in expanding liberty — over the past decade, the growth of Second Amendment rights has been one of the major Bill of Rights success stories. There are lots of other causes, ranging from fathers’ rights to tax fairness. Pick one.

And if you’re not a joiner at all, well, you can always start a blog. For some people, that works out pretty well!

It worked out well for us, quite obviously, and that didn’t come from simply writing a blog from a log cabin in the wilderness. Success for people like Glenn and others came from networking with people of similar interests and passions, linking together (literally and figuratively) to advance arguments and inspire action, and work to build momentum for policies that advance liberty and freedom. It’s a modern version of the pamphleteering that advanced the American experiment, both before and after the Revolution.

It is an amazing privilege to live in a country where such power still remains in the hands of its citizens, a good point to remember on this day of all days.

Update: Apropos of celebrating independent, Mitch Berg, Kevin Ecker, and I will be staging a MOB On The Range Day to celebrate our Second Amendment freedoms (MOB stands for Minnesota Organization of Bloggers). The event will be a benefit (more later on that), and will be held in the near future. If you’re in Minnesota near the Twin Cities — or can make it here — stay tuned for more details.

Hot Air Candidate Survey: 4th of July Weekend Results

With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.
Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.
Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.
(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.)
Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up.
There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.
But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.
Which pretty well explains this outcome:
Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.
Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.
The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.
Lots here. Feedback welcome.

Hot Air Candidate Survey: 4th of July Weekend Results

With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.
Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.
Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.
(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.)
Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up.
There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.
But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.
Which pretty well explains this outcome:
Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.
Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.
The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.
Lots here. Feedback welcome.